European Gas Prices Surge Nearly 50% After Qatar Halts LNG Output Amid Iran Conflict

European natural gas prices surged sharply on Monday, climbing nearly 50 percent after QatarEnergy announced it had halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production following escalating attacks linked to the widening Middle East conflict.

The disruption raised fears of tighter global energy supplies and renewed competition between Europe and Asia for limited LNG cargoes.

Benchmark Dutch wholesale gas prices at the TTF hub — Europe’s key pricing reference — rose €14.56 to €46.52 per megawatt hour (MWh) by 1255 GMT, according to data from energy exchange Intercontinental Exchange. Prices had already gained roughly 25 percent earlier in the day before extending losses after news of the production halt.

Supply fears drive market reaction

Energy analysts warned that prolonged disruptions to Qatari exports could significantly tighten global gas markets.

“Disruptions to LNG flows would reignite competition between Asia and Europe for available cargoes,” said Massimo Di Odoardo, vice president for gas and LNG research at Wood Mackenzie.

Qatar is one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, and any sustained interruption to its output is likely to ripple across global energy markets already sensitive to geopolitical risks.

Asian prices jump alongside Europe

Asian LNG benchmarks also recorded sharp gains. The Japan-Korea Marker (JKM), widely used as Asia’s LNG price reference and assessed by S&P Global Platts, rose nearly 39 percent to $15.068 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on Monday morning.

The parallel rise highlights growing competition between Asian and European buyers seeking alternative supplies.

Risk of further price spikes

Analysts cautioned that markets may climb significantly higher if traders begin pricing in a prolonged loss of Qatari supply.

“If markets start to price in an extended disruption to Qatari LNG exports, TTF prices could spike to €80–100 per MWh,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Group.

British wholesale gas prices followed the upward trend, with the April contract rising 40.83 pence to 119.40 pence per therm, ICE data showed.

Global energy outlook uncertain

The price surge underscores how quickly geopolitical tensions in the Middle East can impact global energy markets, particularly as Europe remains heavily dependent on LNG imports following reduced pipeline supplies in recent years.

Traders and policymakers are now closely watching whether disruptions to Qatari production prove temporary or signal a longer-term supply shock that could push energy costs sharply higher worldwide.